How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential meeting have been overstated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to meet Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but provided Trump leverage to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader consented to a summit in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the potential summit in Budapest.
The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.
So, in a short period, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the war is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.